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Six November forex trading seasonals styles to enjoy – ForexLive


What are the seasonal buying and selling developments in November

I am a bit late this thirty day period with the seasonal rundown but it is been a sluggish begin to the thirty day period so you almost certainly haven’t skipped anything.

It can be a thirty day period with a couple of quite-notable seasonal biases that you might want to keep in intellect. I’ve got a couple of of them.

If you want to see how the seasonals did in October, right here is the scorecard.

one) US greenback toughness

It can be the second-ideal thirty day period over the previous decade for the US greenback index and the Bloomberg greenback index (Might is ideal). The DXY averages a one.37% obtain and is up in 8 of the previous 9 Novembers. It has not been a fantastic begin with the US greenback slumping in the aftermath of the Fed but greenback bears might want to wait around a bit longer right before pulling the set off.

two) USD/JPY toughness

Drilling down deeper into the US greenback tale, the place to bet is USD/JPY rather than against the commodity currencies. This pair has averaged a whopping two.three% obtain in the previous decade, which is pretty much double the second-ideal thirty day period.

three) Japanese stocks

The Nikkei 225 has averaged a three% obtain in the previous decade and is up in seven straight Novembers. It can be simply the ideal thirty day period of the yr to have Japanese stocks but you could possibly want to hedge the yen publicity simply because the toughness in USD/JPY goes hand-in-hand with this go. It can be also a quite good thirty day period for the S&P five hundred.

4) Oil is a laggard

The late-yr inclination for oil weakness is a little something I spotlight yr soon after yr and it arrived as a result of in a significant way final yr with a monumental Oct-Dec decline. November is the worst thirty day period on average over the previous decade but this trade needs a nutritious sum of risk management simply because there have been a amount of significant swings in the two directions. The good information is that I am a working day late with this seasonal plan so the three.seven% rally to begin the thirty day period is a single bullet dodged. With the weakness in oil, CAD is also a bit of a laggard.

5) The organic gasoline rally proceeds

I highlighted this trade final thirty day period and it is a two-parter. The average obtain in gasoline in November is 5.5% over the previous decade. I would alert that there is also some tough volatility in this a single. I checked at how perfectly the pattern proceeds if you can find a October rally and there isn’t any significant correlation over the previous twenty decades.

6) EUR/GBP weakness

I consider there is way also considerably Brexit risk to be putting on any sort of a GBP seasonal trade but be aware that over the previous ten decades, EUR/USD has been tender. It can be the worst thirty day period on the calendar for this pair over the previous decade and the average loss is .87%.

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