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September fx seasonal scorecard: Strong performance from the seasonal patterns – ForexLive


How did the seasonal developments complete in September?

Really well, specifically if you glimpse further than the headlines.

I highlighted four seasonally-driven concepts in a thirty day period which is a difficult 1 for patterns. Three of them have been winners and 1 was possibly phenomenal.

Let us split them down.

one) Late-year oil weak spot

Goodbye September

It’s not fairly what it seems.

“September itself is neutral around the earlier 10 years but there is escalating evidence of weak spot in the closing a few months of the year,” is what I wrote. In actuality, oil is on observe to finish the thirty day period down 2% — all of it right now.

What I argued was that September was the time to promote rallies and without a doubt we acquired the mother of all rallies to promote as crude jumped 15% on the Saudi assaults, only to give it all back. Now, just before I tout the seasonals way too much, this also serves to emphasize the art of trading. There was a $three rally in oil early in the thirty day period and promoting at $fifty eight for a slide to $54 would have been a very good trade at to start with. Of course, it would have been obliterated in the Sept sixteen rally.

All round, I will rating this strategy a earn due to the fact it could have yielded a large return with some tolerance — which is some thing you can say about so several trades.

2) Some discomfort for stocks and Canada

This was a swing and a miss. I highlighted seasonal weak spot in stock marketplaces in and specially in Canada. The S&P 500 is winding down the thirty day period with a one.8% attain and Toronto’s TSX is up one.six% soon after hitting a document mid-thirty day period. It’s by far the worst thirty day period seasonally in Canad but it was not this year. Maybe in October?

The verdict here is that very good information on trade overcome any seasonal pattern. Seasonals are handy but fundamentals can swamp them.

three) USD/CHF power

I observed that September was the 2nd-strongest thirty day period for USD/CHF. The pair failed to mild the earth on fireplace but it obtained about a hundred pips and traded at a three-thirty day period large right now.

four) Second-weakest thirty day period for gold around the earlier 10 years

This 1 speaks for itself. Gold was purple-very hot coming into September but the peak came on September four and it can be fell three.one% on the thirty day period. I wrote in the report that I would use weak spot to invest in and it’s possible right now is that day?

I will have an October fx seasonal bundle up tomorrow.

ForexLive

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