September forex seasonal scorecard: Stable functionality from the seasonal designs – ForexLive
How did the seasonal tendencies carry out in September?
Really properly, particularly if you search over and above the headlines.
I highlighted 4 seasonally-driven thoughts in a month that is a tricky a single for designs. Three of them had been winners and a single was possibly phenomenal.
Let’s crack them down.
1) Late-year oil weak spot
It is not pretty what it seems.
“September alone is neutral about the past 10 years but there is rising evidence of weak spot in the ultimate 3 months of the year,” is what I wrote. In truth, oil is on observe to finish the month down two% — all of it currently.
What I argued was that September was the time to promote rallies and indeed we bought the mother of all rallies to promote as crude jumped 15% on the Saudi assaults, only to give it all again. Now, ahead of I tout the seasonals too significantly, this also serves to emphasize the art of buying and selling. There was a $3 rally in oil early in the month and promoting at $fifty eight for a slide to $54 would have been a very good trade at to start with. Of study course, it would have been obliterated in the Sept sixteen rally.
In general, I’ll score this system a win mainly because it could have yielded a substantial return with some patience — which is something you can say about so several trades.
two) Some pain for stocks and Canada
This was a swing and a overlook. I highlighted seasonal weak spot in inventory markets in and significantly in Canada. The S&P 500 is winding down the month with a 1.8% achieve and Toronto’s TSX is up 1.six% immediately after hitting a history mid-month. It is by far the worst month seasonally in Canad but it wasn’t this year. Possibly in Oct?
The verdict here is that very good information on trade confused any seasonal craze. Seasonals are handy but fundamentals can swamp them.
3) USD/CHF energy
I pointed out that September was the next-strongest month for USD/CHF. The pair did not mild the globe on fire but it obtained about one hundred pips and traded at a 3-month substantial currently.
4) Next-weakest month for gold about the past 10 years
This a single speaks for alone. Gold was pink-very hot coming into September but the peak arrived on September 4 and it can be fell 3.1% on the month. I wrote in the report that I would use weak spot to get and it’s possible currently is that day?
I will have an Oct forex seasonal package deal up tomorrow.
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