Oct currency trading seasonal scorecard: Was no one anticipating chilly climate? – ForexLive
Did the seasonal designs perform in Oct
one) AUD/USD longs
This was a winner. AUD/USD was up 2.7% from when I wrote about it. It went up almost in a straight line…almost. There is certainly a smaller caveat in what I wrote:
AUD/USD is 25 pips off the lows nowadays and back over a triple base
around .6700. If that can maintain there is a excellent possibility-reward trade in
AUD/USD longs with a restricted halt
The future working day the reduced was basically one-pip down below Oct one. If you were being to have place that halt a little too restricted, you could possibly be looking at this chart proper now and seething.
But all round, AUD/USD longs in Oct were being undoubtedly a seasonal winner.
2) Beware the dollar bulls
This wasn’t these types of a excellent trade and it highlights the other aspect of possibility management. The dollar index fell one.8% in the thirty day period and it was by no means truly in the cash. That breaks a streak of five a long time of Oct gains. On the complex aspect, there was some prospect to take care of risks with the break of the uptrends because June but this was largely a fundamental story with Trump backing down in the trade war and the Fed continuing to sign a minimize (some thing I highlighted as a possibility).
In general, this is a loss.
three) Shares like Oct and beyond
I wrote that Oct is the ideal thirty day period on the calendar for US stocks around the past decade, showcasing a one.37% ordinary achieve. Even with present day dip, the index outpaced that in 2019 with the S&P five hundred up one.71% thirty day period-to-day.
Verdict: A different sound acquire.
four) Bitcoin longs
I like seasonals, but applying them to a increase-bust sector like Bitcoin is likely a error in general. But it wasn’t this yr. Bitcoin received about 11.5% in the thirty day period. Now you may perhaps argue that seasonals experienced very little to with the achieve and that any person with a shred of sense would have experienced a halt busted at $7700 and I would most-undoubtedly agree with you.
But hey, the seasonals won out in the finish.
5) Natural fuel
Something about the 1st snowstorms in the Northeast US appears to remind
commodity traders of all the heating gasoline they will be burning this
That seems stupid. You would assume markets would foresee chilly climate in the fall…but below we are. It wasn’t a snowstorm in the Northeast but a chilly-snap in Texas but it truly is often chilly someplace in Oct.
In general, it was another good thirty day period for the seasonal trades with wins on 4 out of five. I will have the November seasonal package up tomorrow.
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