Oct currency trading seasonal scorecard: Was no one anticipating chilly climate? – ForexLive

Did the seasonal designs perform in Oct

At the begin of the thirty day period, I wrote about 5 seasonal designs that designed for excellent trades in Oct. The success are excellent but they also show just how challenging it is to take care of possibility.

one) AUD/USD longs

This was a winner. AUD/USD was up 2.7% from when I wrote about it. It went up almost in a straight line…almost. There is certainly a smaller caveat in what I wrote:

AUD/USD is 25 pips off the lows nowadays and back over a triple base
around .6700. If that can maintain there is a excellent possibility-reward trade in
AUD/USD longs with a restricted halt

The future working day the reduced was basically one-pip down below Oct one. If you were being to have place that halt a little too restricted, you could possibly be looking at this chart proper now and seething.

But all round, AUD/USD longs in Oct were being undoubtedly a seasonal winner.

2) Beware the dollar bulls

This wasn’t these types of a excellent trade and it highlights the other aspect of possibility management. The dollar index fell one.8% in the thirty day period and it was by no means truly in the cash. That breaks a streak of five a long time of Oct gains. On the complex aspect, there was some prospect to take care of risks with the break of the uptrends because June but this was largely a fundamental story with Trump backing down in the trade war and the Fed continuing to sign a minimize (some thing I highlighted as a possibility).

In general, this is a loss.

three) Shares like Oct and beyond

I wrote that Oct is the ideal thirty day period on the calendar for US stocks around the past decade, showcasing a one.37% ordinary achieve. Even with present day dip, the index outpaced that in 2019 with the S&P five hundred up one.71% thirty day period-to-day.

Verdict: A different sound acquire.

four) Bitcoin longs

Bitcoin seasonals

I like seasonals, but applying them to a increase-bust sector like Bitcoin is likely a error in general. But it wasn’t this yr. Bitcoin received about 11.5% in the thirty day period. Now you may perhaps argue that seasonals experienced very little to with the achieve and that any person with a shred of sense would have experienced a halt busted at $7700 and I would most-undoubtedly agree with you.

But hey, the seasonals won out in the finish.

5) Natural fuel

I feel this is a accurate seasonal trade and (as you could possibly be capable to explain to from all the composing about natural fuel I’ve been undertaking lately), I was large into this trade myself. It took awhile, but it eventually compensated off in a large way this 7 days with a big rally. Why I feel in this one is simply because the gains are about chilly climate. Here is what I wrote in the seasonal piece:

Something about the 1st snowstorms in the Northeast US appears to remind
commodity traders of all the heating gasoline they will be burning this

That seems stupid. You would assume markets would foresee chilly climate in the fall…but below we are. It wasn’t a snowstorm in the Northeast but a chilly-snap in Texas but it truly is often chilly someplace in Oct.

In general, it was another good thirty day period for the seasonal trades with wins on 4 out of five. I will have the November seasonal package up tomorrow.


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