Five October forex trading seasonal designs to watch – ForexLive

What is the trend in October?

October is a wishy-washy month for seasonals and it’s essential to be aware than 2008 is slipping out of the 10-yr averages this yr. it was a month that massively skewed some of the averages and we are likely receiving a cleaner glimpse.

That said, there are constantly major occasions that incorporate skews one particular way or a further.


1 currency that was notably challenging strike in October 2008 was AUD/USD, which fell practically sixteen% in the month — an unthinkable move by the recent lower-vol standards. In simple fact, in the July-Oct time period of that yr, the Australian dollar fell practically forty handles — to .60 from just shy of parity.

It later thoroughly recovered the move and a lot more but now it’s again in the doldrums. Just nowadays it strike the lowest due to the fact 2009 subsequent an RBA minimize.

Nevertheless often central financial institution moves — even dovish kinds — can mark turning factors. AUD/USD is twenty five pips off the lows nowadays and again higher than a triple base close to .6700. If that can keep there is a great possibility-reward trade in AUD/USD longs with a limited end. The common acquire in excess of the earlier 10 many years in October is 1.1% — the fourth best on the calendar. The natural way, a beneficial resolution to US-China trade would go a prolonged way.

2) Beware the dollar bulls

The Oct-Nov time period is a strong one particular for the US dollar. The dollar index has obtained in October for 5 consecutive many years. That’s followed by November, which is the next-strongest month on the calendar, featuring a 1.37% common acquire in excess of the earlier 10 years, which include a increase in 8 of the earlier 9 many years. If the Fed opts to keep fees, the trend will most likely go on.

three) Shares like the slide

The Nikkei has a amazing practice of rallying from Sep by way of yr-end. It started out very well this yr with a five% acquire in September. It can be a comparable story in the US. October is the 3rd best month for US shares in excess of the earlier 10 years. Be warned that final yr shares sank globally in October and continued to slide by way of yr-end.

four) Bitcoin


The Bitcoin chart isn’t really on the lookout excellent, subsequent the crack of the September lower. if the bulls are on the lookout to one thing beneficial to cling to. The Oct by way of Dec time period is the strongest on the calendar for crypto with averages of 35%, fifty seven% and 14% respectively. The lousy information? It was down in all three months final yr.

five) Natural gasoline

There is a incredibly strong seasonal bid in organic gasoline by way of November. It has been overwhelmed up all yr but one thing about the 1st snowstorms in the Northeast US looks to remind commodity traders of all the heating gas they will be burning this yr. On the flipside, be aware that oil is now in its classic three-month slump into yr-end, one thing I highlighted in the September forex trading seasonal scorecard.

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