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August seasonal report card: AUD, GBP and JPY all followed the script – ForexLive


What happened in August

September 1 must be one of the saddest days of the year. It’s when you realize that the best of summer is gone and winter is closing in. All those summer plans get pushed to next year and the days at the beach are almost done.

At the start of August, I highlighted three seasonal trades for August and here’s how they did.

1) AUD blues

I noted that August is the weakest month for AUD/USD over the past 20 years and said that “what’s especially worrisome is that there is already a catalyst for
declines. Australia’s covid situation is spiraling out of control.”

What happened: AUD/USD started the month at 0.7340 then cratered mid-month to 0.7108 before recovering to 0.7300 at month end. So this ended up being a small win that had looked like a big triumph 10 days ago.

2) Soggy cable

I noted that August was the weakest month for cable in the past 20 years, averaging a 1% decline. I like plenty about GBP and the reopening but warned that the cart could be ahead of the horse on reopening optimism and that was the case as GBP fell to 1.3750 at month end from 1.3889 after a trip to 1.3600.

3) Yen on the mend

August generally has a poor risk profile. While that wasn’t the case in equities — likely due to a dovish shift in Fed expectations — that was what unfolded in FX. USD/JPY fell about 50 pips in the month while AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY (which I highlighted) did considerably worse.

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